The divergence between developed market economic policies has come under increased scrutiny in recent years with central banks operating at several different speeds.
With the US ending QE and looking to raise rates, the ECB has just pulled the trigger on its own stimulus measures and Japan is part-way through a multi-stage process.
Among the rate cuts being undertaken in China and the efforts in India to engineer growth through structural reforms, there are a wide array of considerations for global investors.
Focusing more closely on those attempting to read these conflicting and contrasting policy paths on the part of investors brings us to the Alternative Ucits – Global Macro sector.
There are currently 51 specialist managers in the Citywire database operating global strategies attempting to tie together the threads of interest rates, economic theory and investment outlooks.
Extending the timeframe, there are 31 with a three-year track record, with the average manager having returned 10.2% over the 36 months to the end of May 2015.
However, there is one manager who can held himself head and shoulders above the peer group and boast to being the only Alt Ucits specialist to have breached 100% in returns over this period.
Loïc Cadiou, H2O AM
Fund: H2O Allegro
Three year total return (May 2012-May 2015): 103.2%
Pipping his colleague, and co-founder of boutique H2O Asset Management, Vincent Chailley to top spot over three years is Loïc Cadiou. The former Amundi fund manager has produced stellar outperformance since being handed the firm’s Global Macro fund in March 2011.
The France-domiciled Ucits-compliant fund has a heavy emphasis on the bond market, with almost all of its exposure stemming from fixed income markets. At the end of May 2015, it had 77.4% allocated to sovereign debt, while holding minor allocations to ABS, credit and emerging markets.
Cadiou has made strong use of derivatives and futures in the portfolio, while also holding around 15.5% of total assets in cash and money market funds. While Cadiou also has the ability to use the short book in the fund. He currently has -14.3% exposure to options.
The emphasis of the fund is on diversifying risk and it operates with a three-to-four year time horizon. It is currently registered for sale in France, UK, Singapore and Switzerland.
Top five fund managers over three years in full
|Fund Manager||Contributing Fund(s)||Three Year TR|
|Vincent Chailley||H2O Moderato R/H2O Adagio R/H2O Vivace R/H2O MultiStrategies||96.1%|
|Kenneth G Tropin||MLIS Graham Cap Systematic Macro UCITS EUR C Acc||42.3%|
|Esther Revilla||FondEspana-Duero Global Macro, FI||39.8%|
|Lucio Soso||Bellevue F (Lux) BB Global Macro B EUR||30.8%|